DMK, AIADMK locked in tense battle for power in Tamil Nadu Assembly

Chennai: In a close tussle which could be crucial for survival of the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu, the DMK leads in 11 and AIADMK in 11 Assembly bypolls, trends for which are available for the 22 Assembly bypolls in Tamil Nadu held on April 18 and May 19. For the moment, the AIADMK appears to have done enough to survive this battle.

While the DMK is heading a sweep of the 38 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, trailing in only 2 LS seats (Theni and Dharmapuri), it is a close fight for supremacy in the Assembly by-polls.

The DMK was ahead in seats like Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Perambur, Thiruporur, Gudiyatham, Ambur, Periyakulam, Aravakurichi, Ottapidaram, Poonamallee.

The AIADMK had established leads in Sulur, Nilakottai, Hosur, Sathur, Vilathikulam, Sholinghur, Pappireddipatti, Manamadurai and Andipatti.
 
The AIADMK has a strength of 113 in the Assembly excluding Speaker P Dhanapal, while the DMK has 88 MLas, supported by Congress (8) and IUML (1), making a total of 97. The AMMK has one MLA, its leader TTV Dhinakaran. For the moment, it appears that the ruling AIADMK may get the numbers to survive this round of the battle.
A worrying factor for the AIADMK is that of three of its MLAs (Kallakurichi MLA A Prabhu, Vriddhachalam MLA VT Kalaiselvan and Aranthangi MLA E. Rathinasabapathy) support Dhinakaran. While the Speaker has sought their disqualification on the ground of going against the AIADMK based on a recommendation from the Government Whip, the SC has stayed any attempt to disqualify them. These three MLAs could vote against the government, at any rate, they may support the no-confidence motion against the Speaker, sought by the DMK. Two other MLAs, Karunas (Mukkulathor Pulipadai), and Tamimum Ansari, elected on AIADMK ticket, could also back Dhinakaran if push comes to shove.

If these 5 MLAs vote against the AIADMK government, the effective strength of the AIADMK could be down from 113 to 108. In a House of 234, with the Speaker not allowed to cast his vote except in the case of a tie, the AIADMK has to have the support of at least 117 MLAs for its government to survive. Which means, that the AIADMK has to win at least 9 of the 22 Assembly bypolls to scrape through and continue its government at least for the time being. If it wins less than 9 seats, it could still manage if it convinces some of these 5 AIADMK MLAs to remain in the party and support the Edappadi Palaniswami government.

The ruling AIADMK could also try to be in the saddle by using the disqualification weapon against some more MLAs that would give it some breathing time.