BJP doing a Bihar style Manjhi operation in Tamil Nadu

Chennai: The BJP, which has been working on a plan to split the AIADMK ever since the death of Jayalalithaa is using O Panneerselvam to do a Manjhi in Tamil Nadu. This is an almost replica of the Bihar operation in which Jitan Ram Manjhi, who was entrusted the chief ministership by JDU leader Nitish Kumar and was later asked to resign in favour of Nitish, refused to step down, and claimed he had majority support in the Assembly with the help of the BJP, a pliant Governor who toed the Centre line, and PM Modi who backed Manjhi to the hilt.

The Manjhi plan was in operation with a full drama of Manjhi revolting against Nitish Kumar, claiming majority support and the Governor giving him an opportunity to prove his majority on the floor of the Assembly though it was clear that he did not have the numbers.

The same Manjhi drama is now being enacted in Tamil Nadu as O Panneerselvam, asked to step down in favour of Sasikala, elected
by the AIADMK Legislature Party, is now revolting and will insist that he has a majority strength in the Assembly. In this Centre-
supported drama, the Governor is likely to give Panneerselvam an opportunity to prove his strength in the Assembly so that the issue
will take prominence over Sasikala's election, and the developments over the split in the AIADMK will pan out in the media and
before the people. Though the BJP does not have MLAs in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, it counts on the 89-strong DMK to put up a
strong performance in the Assembly as and when voting takes place on the floor of the House. It can count on the support of the
IUML but the DMK may not get the support of the 8-strong Congress.

Things have changed rapidly in terms of equations between the DMK and the Congress, allies in the 2016 Assembly elections.
Although a tie-up was announced for the local body elections late last year, the ties between the two parties were strained over Congress charges of  being given too few seats. The appointment of S Thirunavukkarasu, a former AIADMK minister, as the TNCC president predictably gave the opportunity for renewed relations between the Sasikala family and him. This was reflected in the alacrity with which AICC vice president Rahul Gandhi was allowed to visit the ward in the hospital where Jayalalithaa was undergoing treatment, at a time when no senior BJP leader from Delhi visited the hospital.

It has been clear that the BJP favoured OPS to be the CM, and that it did not want to deal with Sasikala. The PM met OPS but did
not give an audience to a delegation of AIADMK MPs sent by Sasikala.

The AICC and the BJP are both eyeing prospects of an alliance with the AIADMK in the absence of Jayalalithaa. The former CM had
avoided an allaince with either of these national parties to maintain her equidistance, though appearing to be supporting the Centre for
obvious reasons. However, the BJP leaders' masked criticism of Sasikala has allowed the Congress to move closer.  

Thirunavukkarasu's caste promximity with the Sasikala family and his earlier association with the AIADMK have also helped the
Congress to establish a rapport with the AIADMK. The BJP's eagerness to prop up Panneerselvam has earned the latter an image of
being a puppet of the saffron party, and this has not gone down well among senior AIADMK leaders, particularly M Thambidurai, the
Lok Sabha deputy speaker. Thambidurai, who claims to have been slighted by the BJP leadership, is one of the prominent supporters
of Sasikala, and has galvanised support for her at all levels of the party.

With the Congress likely to stand by Sasikala in the event of a showdown in the Assembly, and with Panneerselvam having little support among the party MLAs, the 135-strong AIADMK legislature party may find the Congress MLAs compensatinf for any erosion due to the OPS revolt.

Yet, the Manjhi drama will unfold over the next few days at Raj Bhavan, State Secretariat and the Assembly as OPS would project
himself in the media as a powerful rebel. The Governor may lend him all the support he can to continue the split-drama, and thus the
BJP game would be to sully the image of the AIADMK, and hope to swallow a faction of the AIADMK into the BJP camp.