AIADMK heads for vertical split, loss of govt, fresh elections likely

Chennai: The ruling AIADMK is heading for a vertical split and loss of government, as a spell of President's rule looks likely, ending in fresh elections to the Assembly. The Governor's reluctance to swear in the general secretary and Legislature party leader V K Sasikala, and the reported decision to await the Supreme Court verdict in the Disproportionate Assets case, indicates a long period of political uncertainty in the State.

The only way the AIADMK can avert President's rule is for Sasikala group to elect another leader of the legislature party immediately, while it still has the support of 125 MLAs in the 234-strong Assembly, and this leader could be sworn in as CM straighaway by the Governor as there is no bar in terms of a court verdict or position of MLA. This leader could be Thambidurai, or Edapadi Palanisamy or K Pandiarajan, depending on who has the support of all these MLAs.  This CM would take over the reins of administration including the crucial police department, providing a safety net to its leaders and MLAs, while at the same time the clout of O Panneerselvam and company would get reduced.

As long as this strength is around 125, even a combination of DMK, Congress and the OPS group cannot upstage the AIADMK. In course of time, the opposition from the OPS group would not be able to sustain itself, and the AIADMK would have enough time to improve its image before the people and ensure stability and winnability.

The key factor here is that Sasikala would have to agree to opt out for the time being, given the inability to get past the  Governor-Home Ministry wall. She could be told to wait to re-assess the situation, if all the cases end in her favour, and the decks would be cleared, though looking difficult. Till then, she will have to go along with the new leader.

If the AIADMK doesn't proceed on these lines, it could be heading for a vertical split as both the OPS and Sasikala groups would not have the majority in the Assembly. If the OPS group reaches out to the DMK to support it in the Assembly, it will lose the support of the rank and file,

who view the DMK as an enemy with which there can be no compromise. DMK support may help OPS for the time being, but in the long run it will vindicate Sasikala's stand that OPS is working in tandem with the DMK. She can use this scenario to win back the support of the cadres,

and emerge stronger politically. Of course, this would depend on her core group remaining united and having the resilience to be without power or face an adversarial Centre.

A crucial factor would also be the strength of the core group. If the Sasikala group stays above 90 MLAs, they would be safe, avoiding disqualification in the event of a legal battle over who represents the AIADMK party. The same number is also essential for OPS group to avoid disqualification. For OPS, it is even harder to reach this number as he has only about 6 now. If both sides have only 50 to 60 with them, the State could head for President's rule, as the DMK would not like to give one of the groups indefinite support from outside. The DMK will wait for the vertical split to take place, egg on OPS to strengthen himself, and then make its move resulting in fresh elections. As in 1989, when the ADMK broke into three or four camps, the DMK with one-third of the popular vote, stormed back to power.

Like in 1989, the DMK hopes for a repeat of the scenario. This time, it has even more MLAs than in the late eighties.

Can the DMK form the government if the AIADMK splits? Technically, it is possible, if both AIADMK groups fall below the 117 mark. If OPS can have at least 40 MLAs with him, getting past the disqualification situation though not easy, the DMK and Congress with about 98 MLAs can try to provide a government, if the OPS group abstains during the confidence vote or supports it from outside. Even then OPS would be called a traitor if he allowed a DMK government. Technically, it is possible but politically, the road ahead is quite hard for OPS. How long can such a minority DMK government last? May be, for a year or so after Stalin projects a good and populist DMK government. There are many ifs and buts here.

It is upto the dominant AIADMK group now to take a quick call on the situation, hope to cut its losses and still be in power, by electing  a consensus leader (other than Sasikala) and hope to have this leader quickly installed as CM. Otherwise, both the party and the State have a lot to lose.

By R. Rangaraj